A brief, in full
This is the whole thing, not an extract
The Market signals brief for the June quarter 2026, exactly as it is sent. Every figure names its source, its release and the date it was read. Judge it before you ask for anything.
Prepared 23 September 2026 from the releases named at the end. A later brief will carry later figures; this page is one edition and is not updated.
What the lending data says (June quarter 2026)
New loan commitments in NSW, excluding refinancing, seasonally adjusted:
| Borrower | This quarter | On a year earlier | From its peak |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investors | $12.60b | −1.0% | −21.0% from the December quarter 2025 peak of $15.96b |
| Owner-occupiers | $17.39b | +3.5% | −19.0% from the September quarter 2021 peak of $21.46b |
Those are different quarters, which is the point: investor lending set its record last December, owner-occupier lending in September 2021.
What the lending standards say (June quarter 2026, all ADIs, national)
| Of new lending this quarter | Share | Change on the quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Interest-only | 23.6% | +1.50 points from 22.12% |
| Six times income or more | 5.4% | −0.80 points from 6.22% |
| Above 80% loan-to-value | 29.7% | −0.98 points from 30.70% |
| Of loans already written | Share | Change on the quarter |
|---|---|---|
| 30–89 days in arrears | 0.54% | +0.05 points from 0.49% |
| Non-performing | 1.01% | +0.02 points from 0.99% |
What tenants are paying (July 2026)
Sydney rents rose 3.5% over the year. Melbourne 2.5%, Brisbane 4.6%, Perth 5.3%.
This is the ABS rents index: what tenants pay across new and continuing leases. It moves more slowly than advertised rents on a listing site, because most tenancies are not re-let in any given month. It is not a dollar rent, and this brief cannot give you one.
What is coming
Dwellings approved in NSW, seasonally adjusted: 4,586 in July 2026, and 13,875 over the June quarter — 1.4% fewer than a year earlier.
Approvals lead completions by one to two years, so this is the supply that will meet demand later, not the supply competing today.
The part most briefs leave out
Next quarter, and only next quarter
| Borrower | September quarter 2026 | On this quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Investors | $11.38b plus or minus $0.79b | −9.7% |
| Owner-occupiers | $16.69b plus or minus $0.97b | −4.0% |
The band is what this method was actually wrong by on 55 quarters it had not seen, not a range drawn from how well a line was fitted. It earns the forecast by beating “next quarter is the same as this one” by 20% for investors and 13% for owner-occupiers over those quarters.
There is no annual forecast here, and that is a finding rather than an omission: at four quarters ahead every method tested did worse than assuming no change at all.
What this brief cannot tell you
What individual homes sold for, or what they rent for today. The NSW datasets that hold those are licensed for non-commercial use. We asked the NSW Valuer General on 23 September 2026 whether statistics derived from the sales data may be published, and will say publicly when there is an answer.
Sources
- ABS Lending Indicators (5601.0), Tables 4 and 14, seasonally adjusted, new loan commitments excluding refinancing. Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, CC BY 4.0. Release: June quarter 2026.
- APRA Quarterly authorised deposit-taking institution property exposures statistics, all ADIs. Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, CC BY 3.0 AU. Period: June 2026.
- ABS Consumer Price Index (6401.0), Table 10: rents index by capital city, monthly. Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, CC BY 4.0. Release: July 2026.
- ABS Building Approvals (8731.0), Table 7: dwelling units approved by state, seasonally adjusted. Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, CC BY 4.0. Release: July 2026.
Every observed figure above is read from those releases on the date at the top. Nothing is estimated or carried over from an earlier quarter, and the one forecast is labelled as one.
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