The Delta Snapshot · September 2026
Fewer sales; NSW unemployment and lending little changed on a year earlier
On a year earlier, the change so far is in how many homes sell: Sydney house sales were about a fifth lower in the June quarter. NSW unemployment (4.3%, up from 4.2%) and new NSW lending (owner-occupiers +3.5%, investors −1.0%) had moved little on a year earlier, though both kinds of lending have fallen since December. Australia-wide, unemployment rose to 4.6%, from 4.2%. All of this predates the 29 September rate rise.
What the headlines said
September ended with a sixth straight monthly fall in home values, as widely reported on 1 October, and some economists said the market was heading for its worst performance in four decades. On 29 September the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.60%, its highest since 2011.
What our data says
The Delta Snapshot sets out the numbers we may republish, each at its latest release as at 5 October 2026, against the same period a year earlier. Rows marked (Australia) are national; the rest are NSW or Sydney. No row covers September itself: each source publishes weeks or months after the period it measures.
| Latest | Value | On a year earlier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NSW dwellings approved, 12 months | Aug 2026 | 53,525 | +7.2% |
| Sydney rents (CPI) | Aug 2026 | index | +3.5% |
| NSW unemployment rate | Aug 2026 | 4.3% | up from 4.2% |
| Unemployment rate (Australia) | Aug 2026 | 4.6% | up from 4.2% |
| Investor share of outstanding home loans, all ADIs (Australia) | Aug 2026 | 32.7% | up from 32.2% |
| New investor lending, NSW | Jun qtr 2026 | $12.6b | −1.0% |
| New owner-occupier lending, NSW | Jun qtr 2026 | $17.4b | +3.5% |
| Sydney median house price (first counts) | Jun qtr 2026 | $1,487,600 | +1.9% |
| NSW wages (WPI) | Jun qtr 2026 | index | +3.1% |
| NSW homes completed, 4 quarters | Mar qtr 2026 | 44,700 | −1.5% |
| Sydney house-building materials | Jun qtr 2026 | index | +3.5% |
| Mortgage interest, employee households (Australia) | Jun qtr 2026 | index | +2.8% |
| Interest-only share of new home loans (Australia) | Jun qtr 2026 | 23.6% | up from 20.8% |
| NSW population | Mar qtr 2026 | 8,670,105 | +1.1% |
| NSW net interstate migration, quarter | Mar qtr 2026 | −4,970 | against −5,617 |
Where we differ
On a year earlier, the change so far is in how many homes sell. As our weekly issue 2026-w40 found, Sydney house sales in the June quarter were about a fifth lower than a year earlier, while the median house price was 1.9% higher, first count against first count.
Jobs and lending had moved little on a year earlier, but both are moving. NSW unemployment was 4.3% in August, up from 4.2%; across Australia it rose to 4.6%, from 4.2%. New NSW lending in the June quarter was 3.5% higher for owner-occupiers and 1.0% lower for investors than a year earlier, but since their December peak, after a surge late in 2025, they have fallen 11.1% and 21.0% (2026-w40).
Building has not stopped. NSW approved 53,525 dwellings in the twelve months to August, 7.2% more than a year earlier, and completed 44,700 homes in the year to March, 1.5% fewer, while its population grew by about 97,000 people.
Three things to watch.
- The interest-only share of new home loans across Australia rose to 23.6%, from 20.8% a year earlier.
- Investors hold 32.7% of outstanding home loans at all authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) in Australia, up from 32.2%. August includes a $14.1bn fall in one lender's housing book that the published figures do not explain, so read that change with care.
- Sydney rents rose 3.5% in the year to August and NSW wages 3.1% in the year to June. Mortgage interest for employee households across Australia rose 2.8%, and the materials for building Sydney houses 3.5%.
All of these figures predate the 29 September rate rise.
How we measured
- Each figure is the source's latest published period, set against the same period a year earlier in the same file. Most ABS series are revised a little after first release.
- Approvals are the twelve months to the month shown and completions the four quarters to the quarter shown, each against the same span a year earlier: one month or one quarter of a volatile flow misleads.
- Sydney's median house price is compared first count against first count, each from the ABS release that first published it: the ABS revises medians after first release.
- The headline claims are quoted as reported; we reproduce no figure from those reports.
- This edition is frozen with the checksum of every file read, and is not updated. The Delta Snapshot is built on the first Monday of each month.
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General information, not financial advice.
Sources
- Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data: Building Approvals (8731.0); Producer Price Indexes (6427.0); Consumer Price Index (6401.0); Building Activity (8752.0); Labour Force (6202.0); Lending Indicators (5601.0); Selected Living Cost Indexes (6467.0); National, state and territory population (3101.0); Total Value of Dwellings (6432.0); Wage Price Index (6345.0), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0). No endorsement by the ABS is implied.
- Based on Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) data: Monthly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution Statistics; Quarterly Authorised Deposit-taking Institution Property Exposures, © Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, licensed under CC BY 3.0 AU (creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au). No endorsement by APRA is implied.
- Headlines: the sixth monthly fall as reported by ABC News on 1 October 2026; the four-decades view as widely reported that week.
- Rate decision: Reserve Bank of Australia, 29 September 2026. No endorsement by the Reserve Bank is implied.